Written by Glenn | 11 May 2011

If the Box Hill Timeout Arcade tournament series was your normal run-of-the-mill series -- this is otherwise known as they run 3-game series in the preliminaries and perhaps a 5-game series in the semifinals and finals -- then we'd be talking about how Toxy has done the near unthinkable.

But alas, they only play one-game matches so I'll take what I can get. It is still amazing, though. Here's the capper right away: Of the six singles tournaments in the series, Toxy has been to the finals in five of them.

How does it feel to know that in a tournament series the same guy will make it to the finals almost everytime? And get this, Toxy is getting to the finals as the losers bracket representative. In all five finals appearances, Toxy has been the losers bracket representative. He's 7-2 in title series.

When crunching numbers on how bracketed tournaments are played out, I realized that about 75 percent of tournaments are won undefeated (this does not include tournaments that use the stupid continuation rule).

In the Box Hill Timeout Arcade series, the winners bracket finalist has won only 33.3 percent of the tournaments. Akira and Carnage are the only two players to win a tournament undefeated.

Yes, yes, yes, remind me that each match is one game. Remind me that the game is best-of-five rounds. Remind me that this is Super Street Fighter IV: Arcade Edition. But there has to be something going on in the mind of Toxy going, "I could be eliminated at any moment if I fuck up one more time."

Here are some of Toxy's numbers:

• He is 16 for 24 when he gets the first hit (.667). What's better is his first-hit defense; opponents have gotten the first hit only 12 times and won just three times, a terrible .250 average. A more freaky stat is this: Toxy has won every match when his opponent does not have a first-hit victory.
• He has out-comboed his opponents 98-55. On the average, Toxy has posted 2.722 combos per round, while his foes are barely at 1.528. He has won every match when he's held his opponents to less than 10 combos in a match.
• Toxy is 20 for 23 when he has a late lead (.870); his opponents are barely 8 for 13 (.615). When Toxy has a late lead, you can just about lock it up. When his opponents have a late lead, you're holding your breath.
• He's never been out-comboed in any of his matches. The closest spread is two, 12-10, against Naruga in the Round 4 second finals (a loss).

So what would happen if the finals was a 3-game series or a 5-game series? Would this keep up? I wouldn't doubt it. In all eight of his finals matches, he's had a game point, a chance to win it. His two losses were 3-2 finishes.

If this continues all the way to Shadowloo Showdown, we might be talking about Toxy as a major contender for the top eight at the Evolution World Finals (and thank goodness he's been playing AE; we don't have to hear the lame "game's changed" debate).