| 04 March 2010
The LA Riots III tournament is only a couple of days away. This week's Stats Series breaks down what you likely are going to be seeing when the tournament takes place on Saturday at 1 p.m., whether you're going to be watching it live at The Stream studios in Los Angeles, or if you're going to be one of the likely thousands that are watching it on the live broadcast.
We know the eight players that are going to be competing in the tournament and how they're stacked up going into the contest (and you still have time to submit your guesses to win prizes in our Bracket Challenge).
What the LA Riots tournament series does is not only put the focus on eight players, but allow stat freaks like myself to break down the matches in a way that hasn't been done before for tournaments (You probably won't see me do this at Evolution, where hundreds of players await; I don't have that type of natural energy or performance-enhancing drugs handy)
One day, we can have a PER – Performance Efficiency Rating – for fighting game players. Until then, you have the chart below. This is a chart showing statistics from LA Riots II. Click for a much larger view.
Here are six of the eight players that will be competing in Saturday's tournament. The other two – Mike Ross and Justin Wong – didn't compete last time, which is why they're obviously not here.
Before going crazy and wondering what each statistic is all about, click here for the full guide.
Now you're going to ask me, "Which stat means more?"
I'm not sure which one means more right now. In the days of advanced analysis and sabremetrics, on-base percentage in baseball and PER in basketball mean more than what was considered the norm (hitting average and shooting percentage, respectively). The people that follow these types of things will weed out what ultimately matters vs. what is salad dressing.
Looking at these figures, it tells me a lot that I already knew about the six players mentioned here.
I knew that Keno was involved in the longest matches; this further confirms it (nearly a 10 second difference). Also, Kai doesn't connect on all of his ultras, which is a by product of his opponents jumping out of the way when they see his El Fuerte get ready to go.
Perhaps the most telling stat is the comebacks below 50 percent. I was almost inclined to call this the “Clutch” statistic, because it shows what someone can do when they're trailing late in a contest. I thought Alex Valle would lead here, but it's actually Kai. I want to know your thoughts on what the "clutch" stat is.
As we go into Saturday's tournament, I'm curious to find out where Justin Wong will fit in with all of this. He is the fastest worker in Southern California, and he's above the curve on first-hit win percentage. Mike Ross might have a lot of comebacks under 50 percent or less, but whether it's above the curve (2.83 in a final eight for a tournament) remains to be seen.
Here's a quick note of the eight competitors and one thing numbers-wise, that you should look for during Saturday's tournament:
Alex Valle: He leads in a lot of categories I've posted here. Perhaps the most telling is the rounds won under 50 percent. He has 14. The tournament average is 8.33. Opponents might chip away, but it's a matter of what happens late in a contest.
Combofiend: Without a doubt among the six in the chart, he is the fastest worker, regardless of whether he wins or loses a round. He's nearly 4 seconds ahead of the next player and six seconds ahead of the average. He used Abel in LA Riots II, perhaps things change come Saturday.
Justin Wong: In the final eight of the Level|Up tournament, Justin had a 80 percent first-hit win percentage. Stack that against the LA Riots II figures, and he's well above the curve. His average round time was 39.82 seconds, which is also above the curve. The term "stay the course" might not apply to anyone else in this community, but it might do so for Justin.
Kai: It's a strange comparison when looking at his first-hit win percentage vs. first-combo win percentage. The difference is 30 percent.
Ken I.: Along with Alex Valle, he is above the curve in first-hit win percentage and first-combo win percentage (60 percent vs. the 53.35 percent average). He takes that lead, regardless of what character he uses, and builds on it.
Keno: While we have Combofiend who is the fastest worker, Keno is by far the slowest worker. At the LA Riots II tourney, he spent nearly 18 seconds more than the average when he won a round. Another telling stat is that he rarely wins when he gets the first combo. It's at 25 percent.
Mike Ross: Perhaps one thing to look out for stats wise is the snowball effect. Wins compound just as badly as losses. Unfortunately in the final eight in the past two tournaments, it's been the negative side. He was only 3-for-10 following a loss.
Shizza: You'd think the guy that finished second in the tournament would have the second-best round ratio. But that's not the case. Shizza's ratio is plus-2. That means he's been in a lot of Round 3s and Game 3s.
Picture by Kelly Bracha.
