| 21 June 2011
The first was to determine the win probability overall. Here's the chart (this will be posted on the Fighting Game Stats database later today).
If you don't know, the chart shows what the players' chances are to win a match at a certain point based on what the score is and what the player did in previous rounds. There's enough rounds in my database where I feel comfortable in putting this out without the numbers being consistently off.
One more note, the reason why Game 3 is repeated is because the first time around, there was no winner, thus the game was repeated.
Let's take a look at Round 3-3. At this point, based on everything that had happen prior in the match, The Hound was a slight favorite to win the match overall at 54.8 percent. It's still, for the most part, a coin flip but the Hound had it in his favor. Full disclosure: I had my stat sheet written for a second finals match.
The Hound sent Stevoknevo to 50 percent and to 25 percent first and had a massive lead. This is what I wanted to know: With the Hound having more than 50 percent health and Stevoknevo having less than 25 percent health, what was the Hound's chances to win the round at that point?
Answer: 80.5 percent.
Looking at everyone that had been in his situation, the Hound was a 4 to 1 favorite to finish off Stevoknevo.
But Stevoknevo came back with a combo that sent the Hound to 50 percent health. The Hound was still in the lead and needed probably one combo. So now what was the Hound's chances?
Answer: 67.9 percent.
So no matter what, the Hound was still in a good spot to finish things off. Then he didn't, and thus the amazing double KO, and the replaying of Game 3.
= = =
The Stats Series - June 21, 2011
