Written by Glenn | 29 March 2011

No matter whether it's sports, competitive gaming, chess, insert your favorite competition here, so many people will tell you that having the early advantage is key to winning. So much is made of Phil Jackson's flawless record when he wins the first game of a playoff series (he's undefeated in more than 40 situations).

I bring this up because of Win Probability, a term I am going to talk about constantly in the months leading up to Evolution 2011's World Finals in Las Vegas. You might have heard of win probability if you're a follower of advanced baseball statistics. It turns out that the same can be said for competitive gaming.

Win Probability takes into account a certain situation and determines the chances of winning in that moment. Let's say a team in Halo: Reach has a 48-10 lead in a Team Slayer game. It's almost a lock that said team is going to win. But what if it's only 25-20? What's the chances that either team will come out winners?

That's what I wanted to do in terms of compiling Super Street Fighter IV statistics. I pulled together my database and came up with some interesting things of note.

 I'll explain more after the jump ...



A trend popped up during the final eight of the Super Street Fighter IV tournament at Evolution 2010; everyone that won the initial round went on to win his match. It was a 7 for 7 deal, then Ricky Ortiz broke the streak. Daigo Umehara also bucked the trend in the title match, where he beat Ricky to win the title.

At that time, I wondered why everyone winning the first round was able to come away with the eventual victory. Did they shake their opponent that much? Was it that much of a psychological advantage? It turns out there is a big advantage in winning a Round 1. And looking at when a player wins Round 1, he or she tends to do certain things in the following moments.

Here's a look at the win probability when a player wins Round 1 in certain moments:

	Opener	Leading 1-0	Trailing 1-0	Tied 1-1
% to win game	.553	.600	.592	.559
% to win match	.654	.800	.460	.774

After reading some books on probability and checking out other stat sites, this is actually where the numbers should probably be. Let's start with the opening round of a match (second column). If you win Round 1 of the first game, you have a 65 percent chance to win the whole match. I didn't think 65 percent was a big advantage, but let's put this in another way; you have a 65 percent chance to win while your opponent has a 35 percent chance to win. From that perspective, it's a huge advantage, and the match barely started!

Here's something else to note, most of the offensive stats don't change based on what has happened. There are a couple that stand out.

When a player is trailing 1-0 and wins Round 1 of Game 2, said player tends to be more aggressive in the upcoming round. The first-hit percentage for that player is .644, the highest among the four situations presented above. This tells me that the player is on a high and wants to keep the momentum going, even though he or she is still in a bad situation.

When it's 1-1 and a player wins Round 1 of the third game, said player is less aggressive in the next round. The first-hit percentage is .488 and the first-combo percentage is .476, by far the worse among the four situations presented above. This is weird, in a way. You'd think that a player that is one round away from winning it all would go for the jugular and put away their opponent. But that is not the case. They tend to be passive, almost letting their opponent dictate whether the match continues or ends in that moment.

If someone ever tells you that it's OK to not win the first round, keep in mind that you put yourself at a big disadvantage. The past isn't in your favor.