Written by Glenn | 27 June 2011

Now that the Evolution 2011 circuit events are done, I wanted to take a look at the progression of the tournaments in terms of what I consider the three major offensive stats; first-hit win percentage, first-combo win percentage and closeout percentage. I got this idea from a few basketball stats junkies but most notably Ed Kupfer, who works for the Houston Rockets (go follow him on Twitter).

The idea is to see how the averages in the Top 4 stacked up individually (blue line) and as the circuit events progressed (red line). What I knew already going in was that the numbers, for the most part, were going to be below what is the normal tournament average (green line). The graphs are below, and you can click on each of them to see them in full size.

Here is first-hit win percentage when it comes to the Top 4 of each tournament. Just as a primer, first-hit win percentage is as it sounds; what's the win rate when a player gets the official "first attack?" This includes trades. 

   

As you can see, there are only two tournaments that broke the tournament average: NorCal Regionals 9 and Shadowloo Showdown 2011. It's also interesting how the numbers were low in the majority of the East Coast tournaments.

•••

Here is first-combo win percentage. Just like earlier, what is the win rate when a player gets the first combo? It has to register in the game as a combo.

   

It's amazing how polarizing this stat tended to be from tournament to tournament. At East Coast Throwdown 3 and Montreal Annual Tournament VIII, getting the first combo meant everything. But at UFGT7, NorCal Regionals 9 and Shadowloo Showdown, it really didn't matter.

•••

Here is closeout percentage. This involves a little bit more of explaining. When a player has the lead and sends his or her opponent to 25 percent health, what is the rate in which they finish off the opponent? 

Based on thousands of rounds, the tournament average is .828. As for the Top 4 in the Evolution 2011 circuit events, well let's just say there were more than ample opportunities to rally.



It is notable (I know a lot of you are going to say it is not surprising) how two of the worst three closeout rates were the online tournaments. The closeout rate seemed to improve as the series went on, and I contribute that to the same players continuing to make Top 4.

Shadowloo Showdown's closeout rate was so high because there were only two comebacks in 28 rounds. Poongko, the champion, closed out all 10 rounds in which he had a late lead.