| 26 July 2011
The time has come to give predictions that will make you laugh and give back your latest meal. I'm not sure what is easier to do, predict the Evolution 2011 top eight for Super Street Fighter IV, or bet on a number and color on the roulette table and get it exactly correct. It's tough, either way.
With more than 1,000 competitors, it will come down to some luck to get by certain people. It's crazy that just six wins in any other tournament would get you to the finals. And yet, six wins here means you're only halfway down the journey to the championship.
Would you bet on a Seth user, even Poongko, to somehow overcome the health deficiencies and make it to the Top 8? Are there too many people to where the top players will get random'd out by a Yun user? It's too tough to make that call.
So, here are my predictions for the Top 8. This isn't based completely on stats, rather just hunches and what I've seen on broadcasts or experienced first-hand.
Wolfkrone
It was only up until last night where I started thinking about my predictions where I seriously had to consider whether he was going to make Top 8. For two weeks, I had it set in my mind there were going to be zero North American players in the Top 8. But then I realized that Wolfkrone is that good. He has been North America's most consistent player and statistically has played above the curve better than any other player out there.
I would be doing myself a disservice by saying he wouldn't make the Top 8, out of everything I had seen out of him since February, when he took care of the players in the first online tournament. And then he went to all of the live tournaments and did damage there.
He's made five Top 4 finishes at circuit events this year and lost just three matches while in the Top 4. I'm not sure there's anyone else in the United States that could have pulled that off. And if there was a person, he would have done it.
Who knows? He probably has that sinister Kevin Garnett or Kobe Bryant "stay in my dungeon and only think about destroying opponents" mentality. He probably has in his house a piece of paper saying "25TH AT EVOLUTION 2010 WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO ABOUT IT?" He probably looks at it everyday as he practices the minor details in his game knowing there is one goal and one goal only.
I look at Wolfkrone being this year's Mike Ross, where most people are pulling for him while others are seeing what he does throughout the tournament and gravitating toward him knowing there's something special. And he'll quietly sit up in his chair with perfect ergonomics (as if he's the guy in the brochure that is showing people how to avoid carpal tunnel), hold the controller in a firm, proper manner, and destroy opponents.
Wolfkrone should get the eight wins needed to make the Top 8 through the winners bracket. If he doesn't? Well, there's a host of supposed killers that await him and I don't think he'll mind as he mows them down as well.
Mike Ross
I had to think about this pick for a while. I'm fairly sure he makes it back to Championship Sunday. If so, he would be the third player to go back-to-back in the Street Fighter IV series, joining Daigo Umehara and Ricky Ortiz.
I don't know what it is about Mike. Maybe it's because you think it is expected, and then it isn't, and then he does it anyway? Maybe it's because slowly but surely things have seemed to turn his way. If there was an indication he might be able to pull this off, then everyone will look at what he did at Shadowloo Showdown, when he defeated Mago.
But don't look at that match. That wasn't the best indicator that he is a great candidate for the Top 8 at Evolution 2011. Look at his match with Justin Wong at CEO 2011. That, to me, showed he was ready for Evolution.
From all accounts, Mike had never defeated Justin in singles competition in any realm in the Street Fighter IV series, and this dates back to their championship showdown at the Gamestop Nationals in San Francisco in 2008. When Mike defeated Justin at CEO 2011, it was that wall breaking down, like any sports team underdog going into hostile territory and finding a way to get by, even if by the smallest of margins.
Six foreigners
No, six foreigners is not a guy from Xbox Live or the guy Arcade Fantastico that decided to leave the depts of the crowded joint in South Central to compete in The Grandaddy.
I mean six foreign players.
This could be the reality that we here in the States dread.
It won't look like that early on. The US players will get their wins and swim along without a problem. But then it'll get down to the final 64, and then the final 32 and we'll see so many foreigners alongside all the US players you know and love. One by one, on the broadcast, we're going to be yelling our guts out hoping the US players — and they will be really good players, like the ones that are real household names — get that one win that will seal the deal.
... and it will be like watching a slow line of dominoes go down.
I might be standing near a judge who has a bracket, watching all of this happen. I'll probably shake my head at the first US player to lose to a foreigner on the broadcast. When the second US player loses on a fluke move to a foreigner and relinquishes a spot in the Top 8 — and it'll probably be one of the really great US players — I'll probably yell, "COME ON MAN!" By the fifth time it happens, I'll turn to someone running the BlazBlue or Tekken 6 bracket and saying "Any updates?" without hesitation. This picture would be more complete with me smoking a cigarette or drinking coffee wearing heavily ironed slacks and a long-sleeve collared shirt and tie, but I don't do any of that.
Part of me hates that this is the reality we face. I really hope we get more than two North American players in the Top 8. But the fact can't be denied that foreigners have had the game much longer than us over here, and that will account for something. Why do we crave getting games early? Why do we crave bragging on Twitter and Facebook (or Google Plus) that our favorite store broke the release date and hooked us up with a game ahead of time? We want that advantage, even if it's just one day. Because in that one day, if you find something that can give you a win over your friend, you'll take it.
Foreigners have had this iteration of the game for a couple more months than most of us over here. I think they'll take full advantage of that come this weekend.
I hope I'm wrong. If not, I'll probably end the qualifying day by saying, "At least we have Marvel vs. Capcom 3."
Picture by Michael Yu.
