| 07 July 2010
Last year, I was asked to make a prediction for the Evolution 2009 Street Fighter IV tournament, and I said I had no idea. But somehow I nailed the final match being Justin Wong and Daigo Umehara (I mean, that's like picking the Lakers and Celtics to make the NBA Finals, it's historically been a 50-50 chance). But I also made note of ShadyK, Ed Ma and Ricky Ortiz. I got those right too.
So on that note, I'm going to keep my successful Evolution prediction roll going and make some sort of prognostication for 2010.
This was the final eight last year
- Daigo Umehara - Ryu
- Justin Wong - Rufus, Abel, Boxer
- Ed Ma - Akuma
- Sanford Kelly - Cammy, Akuma
- Long Tran - Akuma
- Eduardo Perez - Boxer, Honda
- Takashi Hukushi - Ryu
- Ricky Ortiz - Rufus
There's five shotos in the top eight, including three Akumas.
Statistically (oh shit, you knew I was going to go there; don't worry, I'm not going to make this all numbers) if you told me that was the lineup, I would have mistaken that for a Super Street Fighter IV tournament. Those characters are all in the top eight of my statistical rankings.
Something tells me it's going to be a lot like last year. Gut feeling. Remember last year, how everyone bitched about Sagat, and there ended up being no Sagats in the final eight? I think that will be the case this year. But instead of Sagat, this year's victim will probably be Dictator. There's a lot of Dictator play. In my database of 32 players, he takes up 10 percent of the matches. People will be prepared for Dictator. Then again, with the load of Dictator play, it's possible one will slip through and win 10 in a row to get to the top eight.
I would say this about Rufus, but Justin Wong uses Rufus. Therefore, Rufus is safe.
With there being more than 1,000 players, it's tough for a low-tier character to get the minimum 10 wins needed. To win against the spread 10 straight times would be amazing.
Shotos will probably rule again. Ryu is second on my tier list. Not only is he used a lot, he wins and has the third-best margin of victory.
Yeah, I've tried to avoid picking out specific people. I don't want to jinx anyone, despite being somewhat accurate last year. OK, nevermind. Daigo is good. Justin is good. You will do a four-hit chant for Onlinetony. There, I've fulfilled my committment.
Oh, OK. I'll elaborate.
Here's my prediction for the Top 8 at Evolution:
Daigo Umehara - Ryu
Or, Maybe Daigo uses Guile because his down trigger on his stick could malfunction after his 100th hadouken in Round 1, causing him to pick Guile and do 100 sonic booms. Hopefully he does pick Guile so the Internetz can fire up 100 memes featuring Daigo and the Guile theme.
Aside from that, Daigo has a great EX connection percentage (nearly .700), so if he does build up meter, the gameplan changes in his favor.
And really, who isn't picking this guy to get to the final eight?
Justin Wong - Rufus
It would be a big travesty if I didn't pick Justin. A Big Travesty. BIG! Like, a LeBron-James-not-staying-in-Cleveland travesty.
Justin could go the way of Marn: sign onto an eSports team, win the first tournament undefeated, then make the finals of the second tournament. Oh wait, then that would mean he'd lose (and Marn, I still love you). OK, scratch that.
I'm still picking Justin because he is the best player in the nation, plays at the fastest pace (about 40 seconds) and has lost less than 10 matches since becoming a California resident. He went back to the East Coast and won. He went to Paris and won. The only issue I see is if the pace of the game. If that slows down, he can get into some trouble, as was the case in all of the matches he played at the ESWC Finals and Super NorCal Regionals.
Onlinetony213 - Seth
The funny thing about this is last year, another Seth player was so close to the top eight (sorry, forgot who). And there were pockets of the crowd cheering his opponent, not in a "Yeah, we love you!" but in a "If I have to see that priority-ass, 500-hit combo, gets every opening character in the top eight I might go on forums and bitch longer than I normally do" way.
Onlinetony keeps telling me he doesn't like the changes made to Super Seth. Then again, he has an insane .705 first-hit win percentage and a .647 first-combo win percentage (the average is .582). He's getting priority on his opponents and when he pins them in the corner, he usually gets a victory. This is my "surprise" pick to make the top eight if he competes, in part because most players know that if you sneeze on Seth, it's 40 percent damage.
Three other shoto users
Insert your favorite shoto user not named Daigo Umehara. Yeah. This is based on stats and gut feeling. My gut would like to take full credit, but I must say Akuma and Ryu combined have a near .490 win percentage. Whether it's all Ryus, all Akumas or a mix remains to be seen. Heck, pick Alex Valle and Tokido and one other player. That could work.
But can't you see it? A Ryu will zone fireball his way into the top eight, or an Akuma will do nothing but cross-up spin kick into low sweep for 10 straight matches? Akuma players have seemed to be more versatile this time around, and they'll push forth into Championship Sunday.
Another Rufus user
Leading candidates here have to be Ricky Ortiz and Marn (see Marn, I love you). Ricky Ortiz made it to Championship Sunday last year, Marn did not. But that's not the tipping point. They're going to feed off of every other newbie's "fear" of playing Justin Wong's Rufus. And I think their playstyle, while still aggressive, is different enough to where they'll make opponents experience something when those opponents were hoping for a Justin Wong copycat.
Mike Ross - Honda
I'm firing up NBA Jam because Mike Ross is like NBA Jam. Everyone in the game is great, and they get insanely better when they get on a streak. That is Mike Ross. He's been great but lately, he's been on fire, the power of 10 boom shakalakas.
I'm supposed to be this neutral, do-not-root-for-anyone person, but a little bit of me is rooting for him. What do you remember from Mike last year at Evolution? The one match where it seemed like he had his stick taken away. He couldn't do anything. And part of me believes that has to be coming up in his mind now.
He's done exceptionally well in his last few tournaments. Going back to May, he's had an .806 first-combo win percentage and a .547 EX connection percentage. He also hasn't blown a lead in the last three tournament finals he's played (16 for 16).
OK now go tell me I'm wrong and pick eight players. Or, get that squid that's been picking all of the World Cup winners and have it squeeze me to death.
Picture by Kelly Bracha.
