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It's been a while since I've run a contest of any form, and I really wanted to do something before the 5-year anniversary of the site. So with that in mind, I'll be running a contest right now.

Daigo Umehara and Poongko will meet up in a 19-game series (First to 10) this weekend on Topanga TV. I think it's going to be the most-anticipated salty runback of all time, perhaps surpassing Daigo Umehara vs. Arturo Sanchez from 2010. 

A FT10 is a grind, as many of you fighting game fans well know. It's never over, even after someone grabs a huge lead; several times during the Beat By Contest qualifier and Godsgarden tournament series, players who had comfortable leads all of a sudden found themselves tied.

Here's the challenge: Pick the winner of the match AND how many first-hits he gets in total.

The winner of the contest is the one who picks the winner and comes closest to that player's first hit win total without going over. 

The winner will receive a $20 gift card to Chipotle. 

Here's some help if you need it: Because it's a FT10, that means there's going to be at least 20 first-hits (unless they pull a Yosen and Toname). By the way, first-hit trades will count. The maximum a player could get is 57 (All 19 games going 3 rounds).

Here's some more help: When they met at Evolution 2011, each player got two first-hits. Oh, I guess that doesn't help.

As an example:

Daigo wins. He gets 30 first-hits.
Poongko wins. He gets 30 first-hits.


You can post your answer in the comments below. One guess per person, and your first response is your first guess. Here's some more rules for the contest.

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  • I'm shipping this to the US only. Sorry, to all the international people.
  • The winner will be announced as early as Sunday night, although to double check everything, it could likely be a couple days after.
  • The broadcast will likely be recorded. In the event that any part of the match is unavailable, I'll have to cancel the contest (but I will make it up on a future stream later in the week).
  • In the event of a tie, a random draw will determine the winner.
  • Your answer must be posted on this page, not on twitter, facebook, etc.
  • The result of the first-hit does not matter, as long as they get it. What matters in terms of wins/losses is the outcome of the match. 
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The contest ends Saturday at 5 p.m. PT.

Good luck!