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Get Your Tournament - Commentary

Written by Glenn | 15 May 2011

From what I remember earlier today, some people were calling for some sort of penalty after "Long Island Joe" Ciaramelli conceded defeat to Justin Wong in the first semifinals of the PDP Mortal Kombat national championship tournament. 
 
Long Island Joe was down 2-0 and was about to lose the first round of Game 3 to Justin when controller problems occurred.

I know Mortal Kombat is a way different game than Super Street Fighter IV, but I'll play the "what if" card here. Based on the thousands of rounds of matches I've collected, a player up 2-0 at the start of the third game has won the match nearly 91 percent of the time; and the number nears 98 percent for someone on first game point.

The stakes for Joe to actually pull off the improbable were way too high. Tough call, but I see why Joe would do that.  no comments

Written by Glenn | 13 May 2011

mbt8flyer 

You're not supposed to have regrets in life, that's what everyone says. It is, for the most part, bullshit because there is always something out there. I've had a few regrets, some which amazingly have been erased over the past nine months when I moved back to Northern California.

One of those small regrets was not running another Monterey Bay Thunder tournament in 2007, before I left for Long Beach. When I came back to NorCal, that was one of my goals I wanted to accomplish.

It is finally going to get done this weekend. The Monterey Bay Thunder series returns. It is scheduled for Saturday at the Embassy Suites in Seaside.

We will have tournaments for Marvel vs. Capcom 3 and Super Smash Bros. Brawl, with the winner of Brawl receiving free entry into Genesis 2. It is going to be a fun tournament, so if you're in the Central Coast region, I hope you can attend.

I do ask that if you can help with any equipment, please bring it. TVs and consoles are needed. The more, the merrier (I have two for each game). And if you bring some equipment and we use it, you'll get a discount into the tournament.

We'll be recording matches (still not sure about streaming it, since I'll be running the whole tournament).

If you haven't seen the trailer video, it's after the jump.

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Written by Glenn | 11 May 2011

If the Box Hill Timeout Arcade tournament series was your normal run-of-the-mill series -- this is otherwise known as they run 3-game series in the preliminaries and perhaps a 5-game series in the semifinals and finals -- then we'd be talking about how Toxy has done the near unthinkable.

But alas, they only play one-game matches so I'll take what I can get. It is still amazing, though. Here's the capper right away: Of the six singles tournaments in the series, Toxy has been to the finals in five of them.

How does it feel to know that in a tournament series the same guy will make it to the finals almost everytime? And get this, Toxy is getting to the finals as the losers bracket representative. In all five finals appearances, Toxy has been the losers bracket representative. He's 7-2 in title series.

When crunching numbers on how bracketed tournaments are played out, I realized that about 75 percent of tournaments are won undefeated (this does not include tournaments that use the stupid continuation rule).

In the Box Hill Timeout Arcade series, the winners bracket finalist has won only 33.3 percent of the tournaments. Akira and Carnage are the only two players to win a tournament undefeated.

Yes, yes, yes, remind me that each match is one game. Remind me that the game is best-of-five rounds. Remind me that this is Super Street Fighter IV: Arcade Edition. But there has to be something going on in the mind of Toxy going, "I could be eliminated at any moment if I fuck up one more time."

Here are some of Toxy's numbers:

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Written by Glenn | 04 May 2011

Think of every player you know that has reached the Top 4 of an Evolution 2011 season tournament so far. Now, let me present you this question: Who is winless with an 0-4 record?

There are 15 players that have reached the Top 4 of an Evolution 2011 season tournament. You probably would never guess on one shot, or even two. The answer is in the Fighting Game Stats database. no comments

Written by Glenn | 03 May 2011

Joshua "Wolfkrone" Philpot has won three of the six tournaments in the Evolution 2011 tournament season, and there probably isn't any argument that at this rate, he will be the top-seeded North American player going into the World Finals in July.

In top fours of these Evolution 2011 seeding events, he's 8-2, nobody has matched him in win total. In looking at what he's done while in the top four of those tournaments, there's a few categories that stand out. Some are not as visible as the others, but they're there. It's all a matter of trying to break through to break down Wolfkrone.

And doesn't that seem to be his M.O.? He out-works them at one point or another, and then his opponent has to figure out a way to match. Let's look at what he's done in the three tournaments he's won (Evolution Online 1, Winter Brawl 5, PowerUp 2011).

You can't rely on Wolfkrone to get the first hit, but if he does get it, he's a good bet to win the match. And his defense if he doesn't get the first hit is astounding. His situation is even better when getting the first combo. Look at these numbers:

Wolfkrone Opponents
First-hit wins 25/33 (.758) 13/41 (.317)
First-combo wins 31/38 (.816) 13/33 (.394)

Wolfkrone doesn't get the first hit even half the time, and he barely gets the first combo half the time. But he cashes in. More importantly, he makes his opponents' first-hits or first-combos just about irrelevant. On Sunday, Eduardo "PR Balrog" Perez was 2 for 6 in first-hit wins and 1 for 4 in first-combo wins against Wolfkrone. None of those won a game for PR Balrog, which meant that Wolfkrone had time to adjust and tilt the match back in his favor.

The other stat where Wolfkrone has dominated has been EX usage. It might not look that way, considering the tournament average is .433. This is what it looks like, percentage-wise:

Wolfkrone Opponents
EX connection pct.
.413 .410
EX damage pct
(blocked or connected)
.676 .571

So as you can see, he doesn't hit the median. Thank goodness his opponents don't either or else this commentary probably wouldn't be written because he wouldn't be sniffing the title matches. And don't take that EX damage percentage too big because most of the advantage Wolfkrone has had over his opponents came in blocked moves.

Now you're probably wondering why I said Wolfkrone has dominated in EX usage. Let's look at this again.


Wolfkrone Opponents
EX connections
66/160 43/105
EX blocked
42/160 18/105

Wolfkrone has gotten EX damage in 108 of 160 attempts. His opponents by the same comparison are only 61 of 105 attempts. That's a big difference. Wolfkrone has only had 22 more EX meters to work with (237 to 215) but has decided to not hold onto them in hopes of a big payoff. And that's where he's gotten an edge on his opponents. He's used 55 more EX meters than his opponents. Yes, 55! He's using almost 1 EX meter more per round than his opponent, an extra opportunity to get damage in.

If Wolfkrone can keep this going, he will be a tough guy to stop at the Rio come World Finals time.


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Written by Glenn | 28 April 2011

Peyton Hillis will be the 15th NFL athlete to be on the cover of a Madden NFL game.

Hillis will grace the front of Madden 12, this after taking down Michael Vick in the final round of voting revealed Wednesday. Surprisingly, it wasn't even close, with Hillis getting a 2-to-1 spread in vote. 

Over the five weeks, 13 million people voted, according to ESPN. It was a perfect setup for Hillis to win, because he had the good guy vote as he went up against a player with some hefty past transgressions. Surely, some fans out there did the "I'll vote for the non-Vick guy, no matter who he is" move. Don't get me wrong, Cleveland fans probably outnumbered the Vick haters in this situation, or else Vick wouldn't have been anywhere near the finals.

Regardless of how it turned out, it was 99 percent the right move.

It was a good move for EA Sports. Thirteen million votes means there is some heavy publicity about the game, even if it won't be out for several months. The game was embedded in our minds for five weeks, and yet it could turn out to be a very crappy product or very awesome.

Here's the 1 percent. It does suck in a way that the most deserving player won't see the cover. No, not Vick, he didn't deserve to be anywhere near the cover (and not because of his past bad moments; he needed one more year of on-the-field domination to get my nod). Aaron Rodgers won Super Bowl XLV, took a storied franchise to the mountain top, and had career numbers. For his best chance to be on the cover, he won't sniff it. 

That's the bad part about the cover vote. But oh well, can't win them all.

Speaking of winning, since having a player on the cover, only two players have been from losing teams: Hillis and Barry Sanders. Both of their teams went 5-11 the season prior to being on the cover. Slight difference is that Sanders is in the background; Hillis won't be. The only other player from a non-winning team was Vince Young, whose run in 2006 helped the Titans finish 8-8. 

We'll see if coming from a losing season will hurt. Could it? Maybe we get this conversation at a game store on August 30 between two random people:

"Who's on the cover?"
"Peyton Hills. Hillis? It's not Peyton Manning that's for sure."
"What team?"
"The Browns. Wait, the 5-11 Browns? Am I going to buy the game this year?"

Doubt that will happen but it could. And yes, people will say that the rest of the Browns shouldn't have played a factor in Hillis (1,177 yards, 11 touchdowns) being considered. I also put Hillis in the Vick category; one more year of dominance and then you get on the cover. Hillis should have another awesome season, whenever next season happens.

Both guys were one year ahead of schedule. But thanks to the fan vote, one player received the honor now. 

Video of ESPN's announcement follows the jump ...

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Written by Glenn | 04 April 2011

Five years is a long time. Ask yourself what you did five years ago. Do you remember anything significant? You can probably think of something if you put your mind to it. In 2006 I ran Monterey Bay Thunder 7. It was an OK tournament; 48 players competed in Super Smash Bros. Melee, with Alex "DSF" Fuentes taking home the title.

Monterey Bay Thunder has always held a special place inside me. There's too many memories that have come from the seven tournaments. Whether it was a 53-second win in Melee, or the beginning of the Dave Goodman vs. Gimcy rivalry, or Alex Mohr winning a title on his third try in the series, there was something for everyone to remember.

Players wanted an eighth tournament in the series. I thought about it for a while before saying no; it wasn't in me anymore to run tournaments. I still had a drive to compete (and be terrible) in tournaments, but not run any. When I left for Southern California the next year to start Get Your Tournament, regret kicked in. Maybe I should have run another Monterey Bay Thunder.

It's now 2011, and plenty has changed in terms of the competitive scene, as well as my own life. Now that I'm back in Northern California, I want to bring back the Monterey Bay Thunder series. And that is exactly what is going to happen.

Monterey Bay Thunder 8 is scheduled for May 14. The games featured will be Super Smash Bros. Brawl and Super Street Fighter IV.

Brawl is the main event. Not only will the winner be getting some nice cash, but he or she will also earn free entry into Genesis 2, the major Smash event to take place in July. 

There will be plenty more announcements to come in the month leading up to the tournament. Get some practice in, because it's going to be a great tournament.

You can get more info about the history of the series as well as the upcoming info on the tournament website, or hit me up on Twitter no comments

Written by Glenn | 29 March 2011

No matter whether it's sports, competitive gaming, chess, insert your favorite competition here, so many people will tell you that having the early advantage is key to winning. So much is made of Phil Jackson's flawless record when he wins the first game of a playoff series (he's undefeated in more than 40 situations).

I bring this up because of Win Probability, a term I am going to talk about constantly in the months leading up to Evolution 2011's World Finals in Las Vegas. You might have heard of win probability if you're a follower of advanced baseball statistics. It turns out that the same can be said for competitive gaming.

Win Probability takes into account a certain situation and determines the chances of winning in that moment. Let's say a team in Halo: Reach has a 48-10 lead in a Team Slayer game. It's almost a lock that said team is going to win. But what if it's only 25-20? What's the chances that either team will come out winners?

That's what I wanted to do in terms of compiling Super Street Fighter IV statistics. I pulled together my database and came up with some interesting things of note.

 I'll explain more after the jump ...

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Written by Glenn | 23 March 2011

International matches captivate me for this simple question: Do they play like us North American Super Street Fighter IV players?

If we were to break down the styles of play statistically, there is an obvious difference between North America and Japan. North American players value early aggression, and there are few comebacks. Japanese players tend to play matches more closely, with the endings being a toss-up, and there being more comebacks.

As for Hong Kong and Singapore? I'm not sure. So far, they tend to play more toward North American style. That was evident in the 16-on-16 match, which took place last month. Some of the notable stats -- first-hit win percentage, combos and comebacks -- were above average.

Team Singapore won the contest, 16-14, and the stats of the match are available at the Fighting Game Stats database.

For both teams combined, they were well over the .580 first-hit win percentage average. Hong Kong was at .625 and Singapore was .667. The comeback rate for Hong Kong was staggering; they were at .352, nearly double that of the average (.190). Singapore was also above average, but only at .205.

As for combos, Singapore dominated with a 2.361 per round average. Hong Kong was only at 1.917, which is slightly below tournament average (1.990).

The one stat that took a hit for both teams was EX connection percentage. While the tournament average is .470, neither team was close. Singapore was at .417 and Hong Kong at .437.

Maybe Singapore and Hong Kong are creatures of their own, that they don't play closer to North Americans or Japanese. A few more lengthy matches or tournaments should decide that.

You can watch the videos over on the SGFinest1 YouTube portal.
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Written by Glenn | 17 March 2011

There were nearly 2,000 people on the Team Spooky broadcast on Monday as the man himself, Spooky, did the right thing and cleared the air on certain subjects that took place during Final Round XIV the weekend before. Not one game was broadcast and yet, there were 2,000 people watching. I was one of those people, because I was wondering what Spooky was going to say.

Among the topics he addressed was the groundswell that is he and the rest of Team Spooky possibly broadcasting the Evolution 2011 World Finals. Nothing has been locked, but the tea leaves suggest something is in the works at this moment. As the powers that be work on whatever they have planned in terms of the broadcast, social networks have caught on in trying to get Team Spooky the nod. There's even a petition, signed by a couple hundred people (I have not signed it).

Would it be cool if Team Spooky got the call? Absolutely. That group has broadcast some of the biggest moments in competitive gaming over the past year.  But you know what else would be cool? If Level|Up got the call. They also have broadcast some big moments over the past year. There's something else that would be as cool, and that's if Michael "Slash5150" Yu gets the call. Or, perhaps the guys at iPLAYWINNER should get the call, that would be cool. What about Dewitt "Striderzer0" Ward? He's the undisputed king of Marvel vs. Capcom series footage and he also broadcasts.

After watching the Team Spooky Address on Monday, I realized that who streams Evolution shouldn't matter to me or you the fighting game fan. One of the first things I did after turning off the Team Spooky stream was look at a calendar.

It's March.

Evolution isn't until July 29.

And the time in between is the reason why it shouldn't matter to you who streams Evolution. Because between now and July 29, you should be worried about getting to Evolution. I could understand if today was July 15 and all of what happened, happened. Then we the fans of Evolution might be on pins and needles wondering who will be broadcasting it. July 15 probably isn't enough time to plan a trip to Las Vegas and watch the event live.

But come on, everyone. We're still four months away from the tournament. That is plenty of time to save some paychecks, beg for money or even walk to Las Vegas.  It's said repeatedly, and I'll say it here; Evolution is a tournament you must attend live. It is not the same on a 17-inch monitor on your computer. The four times I've been to Evolution have been unforgettable experiences. When I couldn't go last year, it hurt. Watching Championship Sunday on a 13-inch macbook in a library-like coffee shop while being told you're going to get evicted isn't fun times.

The tournament organizers put it perfectly:
As the world’s largest open fighting game tournament, the Evolution Championship Series has grown into a global event attracting thousands of competitors of the highest caliber from all over the world seeking victories, cash prizes, and community respect. For more than a decade, the tournament is where new talent emerges as champions, and where reigning champions grow into legends.

However, in recent years, Evo has evolved (no pun intended) into something more. It’s where community members and players ranging anywhere from the casual gamer and spectator to the hardcore tournament junkie can gather en masse and connect to meet in person, learn about the newest fighting game titles and hardware, witness the history in the making, and most importantly, throw down against opponents from all over the world. No matter who you ask, they’ll all tell you the same thing: If there’s only one event you can attend, Evolution is the tournament you will not want to miss.
It's perfectly fine to get hype for who will be helping out with the broadcast. When it comes down to it, it shouldn't matter to me or any fighting game fan, because it would be even more hype to walk the Rio on July 29 and see the thousands of competitors taking part in the six tournaments and various side tournaments. Wouldn't it be cool to be among thousands of other people who like what you like?

Most of us have plenty of time. Save up. Be at Evolution.
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