Nothing will ever match the items debate in the Super Smash Bros. series; there will always be the people that say items don't matter, while the faithful will give specific reasons on why each specific item does matter.

I stumbled onto an EA Sports topic earlier this morning, where a discussion is trying to rival that debate. There is actually some talk about whether the vision cone should be brought back for a future Madden, perhaps as early as Madden 12.

This surprised me, to be brutally blunt. I hated the cone in Madden 06. I hated how some quarterbacks had a cone that was smaller than a teardrop, and then the defense knew where the ball was going, even if I quick-moved the cone. And no, I didn't want to play as Indianapolis, where Peyton Manning's vision always covered the whole field. A great passing game but what about the rest of the Colts' package? Not the best.

I hated how it seemed to subliminally tell tournament players to try another team other than the Atlanta Falcons ("Do you like a quarterback? There's better ones than Vick! They can see the whole field, while Vick can't!").

The debate has its share of fans, and honestly, nobody has budged. Either it was a great idea that didn't get enough time, or a terrible idea that had its moment and should not have another one. I'm fairly sure if it was optioned in future Maddens, there would be two types of tournaments, those with and those without. The "no-cone" tournaments would be the main feature, while those who need the lighted guidance would be sent to the side tournaments.

And how would it be treated in online play? If I play a random and he has his cone on and I don't, and we get the cone, I am going to get very pissed off.  It's like playing a random person online in Brawl, and they have items turned on. I debate whether to disconnect or keep playing. Yeah, I'm on the side of No Items, and I've been that way for as long as I've played the game.

There's a lot of words being thrown out there in terms of the cone debate, but I'll mention what "Rozato" said on the EA Sports forums regarding this topic:

QB Vision was just added to Madden to contain/stop Vick who in Madden 2004 was the most unstoppable force in Madden History and 2nd to only Bo Jackson in Sports Video Game history

It was an absurd feature because not only do you have to read a defense, but you had to manually move the joystick to the area that you yourself personally saw, which adds an extra split second or two which could be the difference between getting sacked or a completion especially considering people bringing legit/glitchy heat

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Look at my head, it's shiny but with damages. Actually it's because I scratched it about 50 times wondering how the following could happen in the Dreamhack championship this past weekend:

The guy who won: .344 EX connection percentage.
The guy who lost: .452 EX connection percentage.

In my database, the EX connection percentage average is .436. And I've said it before, you statistically have a better shot of winning a match the more you use EX and (obviously) connect with EX.

Ryan Hart won the title, beating Chocolo by coming back from the losers bracket. Stats from the match are here and here.

Yeah, Ryan Hart won four of five games, eight off 11 rounds in total. He is The Guy Who Won, the guy who had terrible EX connection percentage in a championship match and prevailed.

Holy shit, the purists are going to celebrate! Get on that horse and start typing, "It is THE END of the world of statistical analysis. The most important stat at the moment was proved futile because a player won a major tournament without leading in it."

Yeah, I thought about that. It might be the end. However ...

As I put together statistical categories in relation to Super Street Fighter IV, the importance of all the stats weed themselves out. The case can be made for EX connections being the second most important stat following Wins. EX is available more times during a match. A game changes constantly because EX meter can be acquired. Other stats aren't like that. Having EX is important.

How do you overcome a bad EX connection percentage outing? Dominate everywhere else. Ryan did that. He ...

• won six rounds where he got either the first hit or combo. Chocolo only had two.
• had an insane .857 first-hit win percentage. Chocolo was at .400.
• posted three comebacks, two that clinched games. Chocolo had zero comebacks.
• was 4 for 4 when on game point., Chocolo was 1 for 3.
• did not blow a late lead (5 for 5). Chocolo blew three late leads.

So maybe it's OK to be bad in one statistical category as long as it is made up in other categories. Ryan wasn't the best in what I consider a very important statistic, but he dominated in those five bulletpoints.

Yeah, Ryan's win forced me to look at the big picture instead of just one number. We do that with any sport, where we focus on one number and downplay all of the other numbers. Maybe my mind was skewed. Just a few days ago, we all witnessed two players take EX connection percentage to another level. Now here comes the opposite end.

The best players sometimes dominate in other ways possible. They leave their mark in as many categories as they can. Ryan Hart did that.

Video of the match follows the jump ...

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The final eight for Super Vs. Battle, which took place earlier this year, was single elimination, and when I found out that was the case, my mind went about 30 directions. How can this be? Don't they know that 99.99999 percent of tournaments are double elimination? Are the brackets right? Who is getting screwed?

And then when my mind settled down, I realized it was OK to run a single elimination bracket. No, not because they did divisional play to determine the eight finalists. Even still, it is OK to have a single elimination tournament. We will live. It is OK.

If there was a major tournament and all rules were normal but the one caveat is that it was single elimination, would you enter? Or would you bitch until the tournament organizer changed it to double elimination?

The Newegg Wanfest begins tonight, and it is single elimination the whole way through. It is eight wins to the title. You can't switch your character after losing a round. A big test for a lot of players.

At NorCal Regionals 8 last weekend, I was asked by one former player what were the stats like for the final eight players in a double bracket. Was it beneficial to be in the winners bracket, or did it not matter? The "No shit, Sherlock" in all of us will obviously say that it's better to be in the winners bracket for the final eight, you have a loss to play with. But how much does that help? Even in a small sample size, it shows that the help is not much in attempting to win the tournament.

I ran over 31 different tournaments on Tonamento this past weekend just to see how they all unfolded. Most were Super Street Fighter IV.  Combine that with SoCal Regionals' Super Street Fighter IV tournament, and nine previous tournaments in the NorCal Regionals series, and that upped the total to 41.

Here's what came up in the analysis. Out of the 41 tournaments:

• The winners bracket representative won the tournament 31 times.
• The losers bracket representative won the tournament 10 times.
• Six times a player lost before reaching the Top 8 and won the tournament.

The last bullet is amazing. If you lose before the Top 8, you're talking about making a run that is nearly impossible, winning at least five in a row. The average person booted before a Top 8 wins one or two matches in the losers bracket. These six guys that faced this dilemma pulled insane runs.

I give you Royal Phlush, who went 11-0 at the Midwest Championships to win the HD Remix tournament. I also give you Sanford Kelly, who went 11-0 at Guard Crush 3. The difference between the two guys is that Royal Phlush won a winners bracket match, lost, then went nuts. Sanford lost his first-round match and then went nuts (the whole "win after losing your first match" is a whole other commentary I'll do later because that's double rainbow status). 
 
However, it comes back to the first bullet. It pays to not lose, not even in the title match. If you have that thought of "Well, I can lose because there's the losers bracket," shut up and stop thinking that way. We might have all had that thinking one time or another. I've thought that way, where I could save energy on a DDR match, recover and make a run in the losers bracket. Nope, it backfired everytime (this is 2003, shoot me).

Digging deeper into this, let's just take the top eight finalists of those 41 tournaments. The winner of 35 of those 41 tournaments started the top eight in the winners bracket. So unless you have the run of a lifetime in you, you're screwed after just one loss.

I took a closer look at the Guard Crush tournament series just to see how that unfolded when it came to the brackets. There's been 13 tournaments, 12 which were singles play. Here's how that stacked. Out of the 12 tournaments:

• The winners bracket representative won the tournament nine times.
• The losers bracket representative won the tournament three times.
• Only twice did a player lose before the Top 8 and win the tournament. 

More info about that last bullet: Arturo Sanchez twice went 7-0 in a losers bracket to win a Guard Crush tournament. It goes back to the "run of a lifetime" thing I mentioned. That stat alone makes Arturo a candidate for East Coast player of the year. According to Tonamento, in the Guard Crush series, Arturo is the only player to win a tournament as the losers bracket representative multiple times; he's done it in three tournaments.

The last four tournaments in the series have had the winners bracket representative take home the whole thing. 

I'm sure that some people will bitch because tonight's Wanfest is single elimination. It's the nature of today's tournaments; we're used to losing twice and then getting salty on forums or Twitter about how we lost (random ultra, anyone?). In looking at this a little bit deeper, imagine there is no losers bracket, because in a double elimination bracket, chances are there won't be a championship waiting for you following one loss.

Picture by Kara Leung.
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We should all wish to have this kind of EX connection success. The Team NSB X Beat By Contest is underway, as the tournament to determined the Japanese representatives has started. Haneyama defeated Zangitan in the initial contest, 5-1.

I posted the stats in the stats section.

It was a decent-sized rout. Zangitan never really could break through Haneyama. But where they both did impressive was in EX connection percentage. They combined to go 50 for 59, an .847 percentage. That is insane. Since I've started tracking stats, the average player connects four out of 10 times. Haneyama and Zangitan did double that.

Turns out the player that lost, Zangitan, had a better EX connection performance. He went 20 for 22, a .909 average. Hameyama went 30 for 39, a .769 average. So obviously, where Hameyama held the advantage was the overall mass of EX hits, getting 10 more. Also, Hameyama used 17 more EX meters in total. It's still amazing that two guys hovered at the stratosphere.

A little bit more of a breakdown on their EX connection percentage:

	Hameyama	Zangitan
EX connections	30	20
EX block or empty	9	2
Longest EX connection streak	11	13
Longest EX connection drought	3	1

Zangitan's streak of 13 is amazing. But that really didn't help him, as he was down 2-1 and on the ropes. Had he not gotten that streak, it would have been 5-0 and perhaps he doesn't win a round.

Go here for the guide to the statistics.

Video of the match, with broadcast by Team Spooky, follows the jump ...

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MILPITAS - Four significant events happened during NorCal Regionals 8's Super Street Fighter IV final bracket that should be remembered for a long time. I'll be going through a few of them during the week.

Ricky Ortiz won the title, his second NorCal Regionals main event win in the past three times. Not only that, he exacted revenge against Daigo Umehara, who defeated him at Evolution 2010 earlier this year. Winning the title would have not been possible had he not figured out a way to get by Ryan "Filipino Champ" Ramirez.

Ricky was in the toughest situation -- on elimination point four times -- and overcame it repeatedly to win the second semifinals. It's tough to extend a series by one round or two, and Ricky had to do it four times to get his shot at the championship.

If you're a sports fan, it's easy to compare Ricky's situation to this situation, but considering the stakes, of which you lose and you're watching other players face off for the title, it's fairly close. It's also freaky how close it could have been over for Ricky, twice.

Filipino Champ won the first game after he himself was down 0-1 in the game. In Game 2, Filipino Champ won the first round and then had Ricky to 25 percent health with a sizeable lead. And yet, Ricky prevailed.

Game 3 was a repeat of Game 2. That makes this comeback even more amazing.

What do you do when you're down to 25 percent health with your tournament life on the line? A random poke? A random ultra or super? Press back and get to the corner to start a zone game? Pray? Drink 4Loko?

Here's the two guys' stats of Games 2 and 3 combined in which Ricky Ortiz was on elimination point.

	Ricky Ortiz	Filipino Champ
Rounds won	4	0
First-hit wins	3/3	0/1
First-combo wins	2/2	0/2
EX connections	6/8	3/4
Comebacks	2	0

Ricky did more when on the ropes, being the more aggressive player early on, and being more successful with more EX meter. Ricky had 17 EX meters to work with in those four rounds, using eight (.470). Compare that to Filipino Champ, who had 15 to work with, and only used four (.267).

The other five rounds they played, Ricky Ortiz was not himself, and Filipino Champ was using a whuppin stick. It looked like this:

	Ricky Ortiz	Filipino Champ
Rounds won	1	4
First-hit wins	0/1	3/4
First-combo wins	1/2	3/3
EX connections	2/5	8/9
Comebacks	0	0

Ricky had 15 EX meters to work with in these five rounds, but only used five of them. Filipino Champ, on the other side, used nine of his 17 meters. As you can see with the connection rate, Filipino Champ easily put the pressure on Ricky.

Also, three of Filipino Champ's four wins were with more than 50 percent health remaining. That is making a point. But unfortunately, he couldn't get another point which would have won him the game.

Most people will remember Ricky's other achievements from the weekend, which include beating Daigo and eventually winning the title. It was this part of the journey, his battle against Filipino Champ, that should also be remembered because of his ability to avoid elimination.
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The parity of the NFL this season has led me to believe this will be one of those years where we get so pissed off at what we perceive is the mediocreness of the regular season. And yet, we'll probably all forget it when the Super Bowl comes down to the final play.

There really isn't much excitement, not even in tryin to figure out who could be the Madden 12 cover athlete. Michael Vick would be the obvious pick, then again it would never happen given his off-the-field past, as well as the fact he's already been the cover athlete.

(There is that side note that some people would want Vick to be the Madden 12 cover athlete, so he can be subject to the so-called Madden Curse and never return to the NFL)

In trying to figure out who would be the Madden 12 cover athlete, I looked at how the season has gone and tried to figure whether I could remember anything noteworthy from a star player. There's Vick's six-touchdown performance on Monday and ... the San Diego Chargers' special teams failing to block on repeated occasions? Maybe a picture of Mike Sifres getting destroyed by an oncoming lineman wouldn't be too bad on the cover. There's been more than one player on the cover before.

That's probably not what EA Sports wants. Every guy that has been on the cover is or was a superstar at one point in their career. Yes, even Shaun Alexander who went from league MVP and Super Bowl participant to ... something.

Sunday, we'll find out who the leading candidate is for the Madden 12 cover. This is not a national announcement by the league, developers or producers. It's like that Hail Mary in Jacksonville; it just happens and you have to be ready for whatever comes from the air.

New England and Indianapolis play each other for the eighth consecutive season, including playoffs.

There's Tom Brady, who has won three Super Bowls but has never been on the cover and recently hasn't even been considered (Jared Allen got put ahead of Tom Brady last year?). The previous cover athletes have accounted for six Super Bowl titles. The way New England has been playing this season, they could be getting another one this season.

There's Peyton Manning, who throws to 5 billion different people. If you turn away from your television on Sundays you might have a football coming to you by way of Manning. The old line of "he could turn a shopping cart with two mannequin hands into a Pro Bowler" is ever so true with Manning. If Manning was the cover athlete for any of the Madden editions after 2007, perhaps nobody would minded.

Both guys would fit well for the cover. It would be another quarterback, which has been the recent trend. Six in total and three of the past five cover athletes have been quarterbacks. They have the championship pedigree. They're also past champions. They're two notables the public will remember in a season where the average rule the day.

Sunday's game is one where the winning team will likely be considered the favorite in the AFC. Barring a major screwup, the winner will have a great record and do some damage in the playoffs. In addition, the quarterback of Sunday's big game should get the nod to be the Madden 12 cover athlete.

Graphic by EA Sports.
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A funny thing happened as I watched the San Francisco Giants take the journey to win the World Series. I said to myself that I needed to finish one of the projects I had told myself I would do this year. It needed to involve a few players and the stats they put up on a weekly or monthly basis. And as I watched the baseball games unfold, it was easy to pick the project that I needed to finish.  

Trading cards.

So what you see is a set of six trading cards involving players that participated in The Box Arena's team ranbats series earlier this year. The cards are all glossy with a thick cardstock, much like any current baseball card out there on the market. The stats, which are on the back, are from from their Top 8 finishes in each of the ranbats tournaments.

All six players were notable competitors in the series, and I am grateful that they were all willing to be a part of it. Why did I pick them? I don't know. Maybe they were the first six names that came to my head that weren't on any team. There were a lot of noteworthy contenders.

I also want to thank The Box Arena staff, Edward Sebastian Jr., and Kelly Bracha for their photography. They're all awesome people to work with. 

By the way, the picture you see isn't the only set. I have several sets that I am going to be giving away very soon, perhaps as early as this weekend's Northern California Regionals 8 tournament. I am not going to sell these, only give them away to some fans and followers.

And yes, I do plan on making more cards of tournament series with different players in different games. Stay tuned. no comments

Daigo Umehara is coming to NorCal Regionals 8 next weekend. If you are a fan of The Beast, what kind of championship matchup are you rooting for, if he gets there? Do you hope for a cupcake contest where he destroys the opponent and leaves no doubt that he is the best? Or maybe you are hoping for a matchup where palms sweat, vocal cords are lost and eyes bulge out in excitement.

The easy pick is to go with Ryan "Filipino Champ" Ramirez. The two guys met up at SoCal Regionals this past weekend, and it was as close as close could be (stats of the match are here and here). Daigo statistically had the upper hand on Filipino Champ in three offensive categories. And Filipino Champ overcame the odds to win the title. Can these two guys meet up a second time and Daigo have the upper hand statistically again and lose again? Very few people have performed worse than their opponent and won; Daigo did it against Arturo Sanchez at The Salty Runback.

Maybe some of you want a championship match involving Daigo and Alex Valle. After their encounter at SoCal Regionals, who wouldn't? That matchup was arguably closer than the title match, and perhaps the match of the year. Valle made three comebacks against Daigo, despite posting a .360 EX connection average. Daigo had to be kicking himself with all of the opportunities lost to close it out earlier. If they met again, his ability to finish Valle would probably come to the forefront.

In his Top 8 run, Daigo posted a very human .731 closeout percentage. Against Valle, it was .571. A rematch would give Daigo a chance to redeem himself, or for Valle to push that .571 further to the ground.

Any matchup involving he and Justin Wong still seems enticing. They could have met but the stars didn't align. It would be a great matchup of offense vs defense. At SoCal Regionals, Justin had the best first-combo percentage at .714. Daigo had the best defense against the first combo, at .298. Justin's EX connection percentage was .423, while Daigo's defense in the same category was .301, best in the top eight.

Daigo coming to NorCal Regionals allows the fans and followers to come up with the dream finals contests. Those three guys seem like a good pick.

On a side note, you've probably noticed that my picks for people to get to the finals has been horrible as of late. So if Daigo falls victim as well, feel free to let me know.

Picture by Michael Yu. no comments

  
Arguably the hottest topic in the National Football League recently has been the league's crackdown on violent hits to the head. While the league's brass has said it's not introducing any new legislation, many fans and players are wondering what constitutes a legal or illegal hit by a person playing this collision sport.

Will this translate to Madden, where the "hit stick" has been popular over the past few years? Even those that don't know much about Madden know about the "hit stick," which can cause fumbles, dropped passes, and injuries to players in Madden. The hit stick was once a mandatory tool to being better on defense.

Now, is it even a factor? 

The guys at Ask Madden tackle the topic of how the game mimics what happens on Sundays, and they believe the future isn't promising. You can read their full thoughts on their website:

So how does this relate to Madden? Well, honestly, the answer is right in front of our eyes. Typically, Madden mirrors the NFL (and does a very good job at it, I might say), but this time the NFL may mirror the Madden series. In previous years, your opponent got the message when you made the screen shake by delivering a hit from Bob Sanders, Rodney Harrison or Ray Lewis. Recently, this year’s Madden has moved away from the hitstick and have gone in a direction where click-off tackles and strip animations are more rewarding than squaring up your shoulders and flicking the right stick with a clenched jaw — hence the title of this article.

So how does the (lack) of hitstick relate to the NFL? It’s simple — soon in the NFL we’re going to see more arm tackles, hesitation and broken tackles by the defense. Long gone are the days of punishing a defenseless receiver over the middle of the field, or a ball carrier attempting to break one too many tackles. This tactic was used to intimidate the receiver or ball carrier for the rest of the game, not necessarily hurt the player. Ironically, the intimidation and hesitation is now on the defensive side of the ball. Sure, they aren’t worried about injuries, but they are worried about their wallet.

Madden 11 is the future of the NFL if they continue to punish the defense for putting the lights out on a ball carrier. We’re going to see a lot of the same things that we see on Sunday as we do when we put the game into our consoles. It isn’t necessarily the desire to hurt the ball carrier as much as it is to intimidate him, and make him become hesitant about catching or running the ball. Instead, we have the opposite effect — a soft defense, dozens of broken tackles, and scores reaching into the 40’s and beyond. We all know how frustrating it is trying to get a stop defensively in Madden. It’s a matter of time before we see it in the NFL.

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Southern California's "MikeHAZE" Pulido was one of the hundreds that participated in the 2010 MLG season in Brawl. He was in the upper portion of the standings a lot of times during the season, which could be one-and-done.

MikeHAZE, like a lot of Brawl players, are hoping that 2010 isn't the only season for Brawl. The league probably won't make the decision for a while. I've already said my thoughts about it.

MikeHAZE took some time Tuesday to share his love for the first, and what he hopes is not the last, Brawl season. He mentioned that MLG "is the dream for every player who plays competitively." His full comments are on Smashboards. Part of it is below:

I hope after Grand Finals this weekend, more players will come out to more and more events. Every person I talked to said that MLG Finals was pretty much the best tournament they have EVER been to. Myself Included. Nothing can recreate the intensity, frustration, heartbreak, and joy that not only finals, but EVERY MLG event brings to our community.

I, and I'm sure EVERY player would like to say "Thank you." Thank you to everyone at MLG who made this happen. From Sundance, to ALL of the staff, to AZ and JV, to every ref, to every camera person, to every writer on the site. Thank you for this experience. I am not alone when I say "I hope to see you next year." I hope our relationship continues to expand, and we're not just a one season game, because we're more than that. No other game on your circuit will share the same kind of hype, the same trash talk, and the same unity that we as a community do.

We hope to see you on the Circuit next year.

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