The latest Stats Series podcast is about a couple marks from the Evolution tournament series. Will they continue this weekend? We will find out.
You can listen to it on the link below.
The Stats Series - July 27, 2011 no comments
You can listen to it on the link below.
The Stats Series - July 27, 2011 no comments
During last night's Madden 12 Pro-Am event (watch it here), producers with EA Sports announced the Madden 12 demo will be available Aug. 9 for both the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3.
The two teams in the demo will be the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers, the matchup from last season's NFC championship game. The setting is Soldier Field and there will be no commentary. The rosters will be pre-free agency. no comments
The two teams in the demo will be the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers, the matchup from last season's NFC championship game. The setting is Soldier Field and there will be no commentary. The rosters will be pre-free agency. no comments
The time has come to give predictions that will make you laugh and give back your latest meal. I'm not sure what is easier to do, predict the Evolution 2011 top eight for Super Street Fighter IV, or bet on a number and color on the roulette table and get it exactly correct. It's tough, either way.
With more than 1,000 competitors, it will come down to some luck to get by certain people. It's crazy that just six wins in any other tournament would get you to the finals. And yet, six wins here means you're only halfway down the journey to the championship.
Would you bet on a Seth user, even Poongko, to somehow overcome the health deficiencies and make it to the Top 8? Are there too many people to where the top players will get random'd out by a Yun user? It's too tough to make that call.
So, here are my predictions for the Top 8. This isn't based completely on stats, rather just hunches and what I've seen on broadcasts or experienced first-hand.
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EA Sports is broadcasting its Madden 12 Pro-Am event right now. Get details on when the Madden 12 demo will be released as well as watch competitors take part in the game.
Stream follows the jump ...
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Stream follows the jump ...
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I wanted to take a quick moment to thank the Evolution tournament organizers for allowing me to cover their tournament this year and for them choosing me to be the main scoreboard updater for the tournament.
This is the third year I'll be running around doing updates from the tournament. This time, the plan is to do the updates for both Shoryuken and Get Your Tournament. Yes, I'll be running around so you get a constant update of who is in and out of the tournament. And hopefully the servers, Internet and hamster wheels don't go down.
Stay tuned for where I'll be doing updates because it'll be on a few places. no comments
This is the third year I'll be running around doing updates from the tournament. This time, the plan is to do the updates for both Shoryuken and Get Your Tournament. Yes, I'll be running around so you get a constant update of who is in and out of the tournament. And hopefully the servers, Internet and hamster wheels don't go down.
Stay tuned for where I'll be doing updates because it'll be on a few places. no comments
Imagine how all of the dedicated sports networks feel like when schedules are released. Yes, that's how it feels today, as the Evolution 2011 pools are being figured out. If you haven't check out where you are, click here.
The check-in feature allows you to see where you are, but doesn't give much else. No worries. People are compiling the data that's being revealed by competitors. You can check out that info on Google Docs.
Finally, there's fantasy brackets going around. This is probably the most awesome thing I've seen yet. The Evolution tournament organizers have figured out, based off of seeding points, who would be the final 32 players in Super Street Fighter IV and Marvel vs. Capcom 3 provided that there are zero upsets. They want your thoughts as to who will win the title based off of these brackets.
I'll share my thoughts tomorrow on who's making Top 8 in two ways: by stats and by (my very large) gut. no comments
It came out on the cuff last week during a Stats Series podcast. I told listeners that in order to win one of the two major tournaments at Evolution 2011, someone would have to win at least 10 games in a row.
Well, it turns out that's not really the case, but it is fairly close.
Think about how many times you've gone to an arcade or played online and have won 10 in a row. Haven't done it? You probably need to. It will likely take a 10-game winning streak to even be considered for a finals appearance.
I'm not sure how many players have signed up for either of the two major tournaments, but from what "Mr. Wizard" Joey Cuellar said on the Wake Up SRK podcast this past weekend, the totals are comparable to what was last year's attendance. So in all reality, we're looking at nearly 1,500 competitors for both games. And the number could be much more.
My analysis below is based off of how past Evolution tournaments have been structured. That is, a "pool" is just a smaller portion of the complete bracket. Then that pool is combined with another pool once its complete, etc. And then in the end the final two play for the title.
An even bracket would need 1,024 players. Add one more round, and it would be 2,048 players. So for the sake of this mathematical analysis because there probably 1,500 players, let's say there are exactly 2,048 players and you're stuck having to play in a play-in game. After repeatedly going through a fake bracket, here is what you'll need to do in order to reach the finals based on the point of when you lose in the tournament (if you lose).
So no matter what, you will need to win at least 12 games to win the title. Be prepared to grind it out.
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Well, it turns out that's not really the case, but it is fairly close.
Think about how many times you've gone to an arcade or played online and have won 10 in a row. Haven't done it? You probably need to. It will likely take a 10-game winning streak to even be considered for a finals appearance.
I'm not sure how many players have signed up for either of the two major tournaments, but from what "Mr. Wizard" Joey Cuellar said on the Wake Up SRK podcast this past weekend, the totals are comparable to what was last year's attendance. So in all reality, we're looking at nearly 1,500 competitors for both games. And the number could be much more.
My analysis below is based off of how past Evolution tournaments have been structured. That is, a "pool" is just a smaller portion of the complete bracket. Then that pool is combined with another pool once its complete, etc. And then in the end the final two play for the title.
An even bracket would need 1,024 players. Add one more round, and it would be 2,048 players. So for the sake of this mathematical analysis because there probably 1,500 players, let's say there are exactly 2,048 players and you're stuck having to play in a play-in game. After repeatedly going through a fake bracket, here is what you'll need to do in order to reach the finals based on the point of when you lose in the tournament (if you lose).
| If you go ... | To reach the finals... |
| 0-1 | 21-0 |
| 1-1 | 19-0 |
| 2-1 | 17-0 |
| 3-1 | 15-0 |
| 4-1 | 13-0 |
| 5-1 | 11-0 |
| 6-1 | 9-0 |
| 7-1 | 7-0 |
| 8-1 | 5-0 |
| 9-1 | 3-0 |
| 10-1 | 1-0 |
| 11-0 | In the finals |
So no matter what, you will need to win at least 12 games to win the title. Be prepared to grind it out.
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My whole plan was to only let you know that I finally put together the interactive chart for the Super Battle Opera qualifying tournament late last night. But something came up this morning related to it, and I'll connect both of them together here.
First off, the Top 6 interactive charts for the SBO tournament includes two extra parts.
Both of them, mostly SNK, received a lot of heat for winning the tournament and thus receiving the qualifying berth to represent the United States at Tougeki later this year. And then, they relinquished the berth to the runners-up, Mike Ross and Ryan "Filipino Champ" Ramirez.
But before they bowed out, the comments were fire. People were giving major love to Latif for carrying the team and questioned SNK's ability. And I totally understand why people were "upset." Never before had I seen a win share differential as big for a team that made the finals. A little more than a year ago, one team made the finals of an Orange County tournament and lost. That team's win share in the Top 8 was .824 and .176, a differential of .648.
Latif's win share was .923. SNK's win share was .076, a difference of .847. That's insane. In looking at my charts, SNK won his first round in the Top 6 and then never won again (and never had a lead at a benchmark). That put immense pressure on Latif and he delivered. His performance was lauded by many. Consider this: In the Top 6, he entered into every match down 1-0. How many of us would win three of the toughest matches in a tournament all starting with a deficit? Latif delivered when he needed to.
Enter Mike Ross.
I thought Mike's idea was truly genius. On the latest Cross Counter episode, he talked about dream matches he would want to see in the After Hours Suite at Evolution 2011. He mentioned getting everyone that thought SNK is/was bad and pitting them against him.
We all have had people doubt us. And I'm sure many of us have wanted to get those people in an arena and smack them around, to prove to them that they're wrong. SNK taking on all comers would be a great showcase at Evolution.
You can see the rest of the latest Cross Counter following the jump:
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First off, the Top 6 interactive charts for the SBO tournament includes two extra parts.
- Averages: Under the percentage tables, there is a red line that shows the average percentages for each category. I added this so you all can tell when a player is above or below average in a certain statistic.
- Win Shares (WS): This is a very important stat in regard to team tournaments. It tells the percentage of total wins that a teammate had compared to his or her opponent. If both players win 2 rounds, then the win share for each player is .500. If one player gets 1 win and his teammate gets 3, then the win share is .250 for one player and .750 for the other. It's a quick way to figure out whether someone did more work for the team than his or her teammate.
Both of them, mostly SNK, received a lot of heat for winning the tournament and thus receiving the qualifying berth to represent the United States at Tougeki later this year. And then, they relinquished the berth to the runners-up, Mike Ross and Ryan "Filipino Champ" Ramirez.
But before they bowed out, the comments were fire. People were giving major love to Latif for carrying the team and questioned SNK's ability. And I totally understand why people were "upset." Never before had I seen a win share differential as big for a team that made the finals. A little more than a year ago, one team made the finals of an Orange County tournament and lost. That team's win share in the Top 8 was .824 and .176, a differential of .648.
Latif's win share was .923. SNK's win share was .076, a difference of .847. That's insane. In looking at my charts, SNK won his first round in the Top 6 and then never won again (and never had a lead at a benchmark). That put immense pressure on Latif and he delivered. His performance was lauded by many. Consider this: In the Top 6, he entered into every match down 1-0. How many of us would win three of the toughest matches in a tournament all starting with a deficit? Latif delivered when he needed to.
Enter Mike Ross.
I thought Mike's idea was truly genius. On the latest Cross Counter episode, he talked about dream matches he would want to see in the After Hours Suite at Evolution 2011. He mentioned getting everyone that thought SNK is/was bad and pitting them against him.
We all have had people doubt us. And I'm sure many of us have wanted to get those people in an arena and smack them around, to prove to them that they're wrong. SNK taking on all comers would be a great showcase at Evolution.
You can see the rest of the latest Cross Counter following the jump:
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Genesis 2's Brawl champion Jason "Mew2King" Zimmerman will have to sit out a month from almost all Brawl tournaments after the Smashboards' Brawl Back Room penalized him a second time.
The BBR decided to penalize him for underperforming, a yellow-card violation. He already had a yellow card for splitting prize money.
(CLARIFICATION: The incident happened during divisional play, where it was determined he sandbagged to allow another player to get a win and earn a spot in the playoffs)
The ruling means that Mew2King cannot participate in any tournaments that use the Unity Ruleset for four weeks, meaning his suspension will be lifted Aug. 19. More regional and national tournaments have begun to adopt the Unity Ruleset. At one point earlier this month, a full slate of weekend tournaments all used it.
Here's more from the BBR:
The BBR decided to penalize him for underperforming, a yellow-card violation. He already had a yellow card for splitting prize money.
(CLARIFICATION: The incident happened during divisional play, where it was determined he sandbagged to allow another player to get a win and earn a spot in the playoffs)
The ruling means that Mew2King cannot participate in any tournaments that use the Unity Ruleset for four weeks, meaning his suspension will be lifted Aug. 19. More regional and national tournaments have begun to adopt the Unity Ruleset. At one point earlier this month, a full slate of weekend tournaments all used it.
Here's more from the BBR:
Under-performance has been a problem in our community for a while now, especially in pool play. In every tournament (especially large ones), matches in pool play are still regular matches and the deviation of these matches can effect results, even for players not involved in a questionable set. The BBR-RC is aware of recent events at tournaments, including Ally at Clash of the Titans 5, and Mew2King at Genesis 2. We want to make it clear that character choice alone can not have someone infracted. We understand there are times players wish to practice secondaries in preparation for bracket, or conserve energy for long and tiring events. The difference between the situation with Ally andMew2King however is moving into Intentional Under-performance, which is specifically stated as not being allowed in the Unity Infraction System. All factors have been considered under both events, and with Mew2King's current Yellow Card still active, this is the conclusion we have reached. We found the isolated incident (involving a single person) with Mew2King to have crossed the lines of intentional under-performance, while Ally had not. The Red Card for Mew2King will be active for 4 weeks.Two other players were given yellow cards for splitting prize money at a regional tournament. no comments
Carolina rookie Cam Newton will be the top-rated rookie in Madden 12. However, let's not get too excited about his overall rating, which is barely a 77.
It's kind of surprising that no rookie has been rated at least an 80, and the 10th best rookie by rating, Greg McElroy of the New York Jets, is barely a 65.
Here's more from EA Sports, which released the top 10 earlier today:
Rookie quarterbacks in Madden NFL 12 almost have it as tough as their real life counterparts. If a player isn’t a Hall of Fame caliber player after his first snap, he’s immediately subject to more verbal abuse from fans than he’s ever heard in his life. Whether you’re yelling at them --or for them-- with a remote control, gamepad or $10 pretzel in your hand, quarterbacks get far too much credit and far too much blame for their team’s success or failure.Here are the top five:
In Madden NFL 12 the rookie QBs will likely be subject to even more scrutiny with the addition of player traits and tendencies as those are just more metrics on which you can base your hastily formed opinions after each snap.
- Cam Newton: 77
- Blain Gabbert: 75
- Jake Locker: 74
- Christian Ponder: 73
- Andy Dalton: 71
