Last year, I was asked to make a prediction for the Evolution 2009 Street Fighter IV tournament, and I said I had no idea. But somehow I nailed the final match being Justin Wong and Daigo Umehara (I mean, that's like picking the Lakers and Celtics to make the NBA Finals, it's historically been a 50-50 chance). But I also made note of ShadyK, Ed Ma and Ricky Ortiz. I got those right too.
So on that note, I'm going to keep my successful Evolution prediction roll going and make some sort of prognostication for 2010.
This was the final eight last year
Daigo Umehara - Ryu
Justin Wong - Rufus, Abel, Boxer
Ed Ma - Akuma
Sanford Kelly - Cammy, Akuma
Long Tran - Akuma
Eduardo Perez - Boxer, Honda
Takashi Hukushi - Ryu
Ricky Ortiz - Rufus
There's five shotos in the top eight, including three Akumas.
Statistically (oh shit, you knew I was going to go there; don't worry, I'm not going to make this all numbers) if you told me that was the lineup, I would have mistaken that for a Super Street Fighter IV tournament. Those characters are all in the top eight of my statistical rankings.
Something tells me it's going to be a lot like last year. Gut feeling. Remember last year, how everyone bitched about Sagat, and there ended up being no Sagats in the final eight? I think that will be the case this year. But instead of Sagat, this year's victim will probably be Dictator. There's a lot of Dictator play. In my database of 32 players, he takes up 10 percent of the matches. People will be prepared for Dictator. Then again, with the load of Dictator play, it's possible one will slip through and win 10 in a row to get to the top eight.
I would say this about Rufus, but Justin Wong uses Rufus. Therefore, Rufus is safe.
With there being more than 1,000 players, it's tough for a low-tier character to get the minimum 10 wins needed. To win against the spread 10 straight times would be amazing.
Shotos will probably rule again. Ryu is second on my tier list. Not only is he used a lot, he wins and has the third-best margin of victory.
Yeah, I've tried to avoid picking out specific people. I don't want to jinx anyone, despite being somewhat accurate last year. OK, nevermind. Daigo is good. Justin is good. You will do a four-hit chant for Onlinetony. There, I've fulfilled my committment.
Oh, OK. I'll elaborate.
Here's my prediction for the Top 8 at Evolution:
Daigo Umehara - Ryu
Or, Maybe Daigo uses Guile because his down trigger on his stick could malfunction after his 100th hadouken in Round 1, causing him to pick Guile and do 100 sonic booms. Hopefully he does pick Guile so the Internetz can fire up 100 memes featuring Daigo and the Guile theme.
Aside from that, Daigo has a great EX connection percentage (nearly .700), so if he does build up meter, the gameplan changes in his favor.
And really, who isn't picking this guy to get to the final eight?
Justin Wong - Rufus
It would be a big travesty if I didn't pick Justin. A Big Travesty. BIG! Like, a LeBron-James-not-staying-in-Cleveland travesty.
Justin could go the way of Marn: sign onto an eSports team, win the first tournament undefeated, then make the finals of the second tournament. Oh wait, then that would mean he'd lose (and Marn, I still love you). OK, scratch that.
I'm still picking Justin because he is the best player in the nation, plays at the fastest pace (about 40 seconds) and has lost less than 10 matches since becoming a California resident. He went back to the East Coast and won. He went to Paris and won. The only issue I see is if the pace of the game. If that slows down, he can get into some trouble, as was the case in all of the matches he played at the ESWC Finals and Super NorCal Regionals.
Onlinetony213 - Seth
The funny thing about this is last year, another Seth player was so close to the top eight (sorry, forgot who). And there were pockets of the crowd cheering his opponent, not in a "Yeah, we love you!" but in a "If I have to see that priority-ass, 500-hit combo, gets every opening character in the top eight I might go on forums and bitch longer than I normally do" way.
Onlinetony keeps telling me he doesn't like the changes made to Super Seth. Then again, he has an insane .705 first-hit win percentage and a .647 first-combo win percentage (the average is .582). He's getting priority on his opponents and when he pins them in the corner, he usually gets a victory. This is my "surprise" pick to make the top eight if he competes, in part because most players know that if you sneeze on Seth, it's 40 percent damage.
Three other shoto users
Insert your favorite shoto user not named Daigo Umehara. Yeah. This is based on stats and gut feeling. My gut would like to take full credit, but I must say Akuma and Ryu combined have a near .490 win percentage. Whether it's all Ryus, all Akumas or a mix remains to be seen. Heck, pick Alex Valle and Tokido and one other player. That could work.
But can't you see it? A Ryu will zone fireball his way into the top eight, or an Akuma will do nothing but cross-up spin kick into low sweep for 10 straight matches? Akuma players have seemed to be more versatile this time around, and they'll push forth into Championship Sunday.
Another Rufus user
Leading candidates here have to be Ricky Ortiz and Marn (see Marn, I love you). Ricky Ortiz made it to Championship Sunday last year, Marn did not. But that's not the tipping point. They're going to feed off of every other newbie's "fear" of playing Justin Wong's Rufus. And I think their playstyle, while still aggressive, is different enough to where they'll make opponents experience something when those opponents were hoping for a Justin Wong copycat.
Mike Ross - Honda
I'm firing up NBA Jam because Mike Ross is like NBA Jam. Everyone in the game is great, and they get insanely better when they get on a streak. That is Mike Ross. He's been great but lately, he's been on fire, the power of 10 boom shakalakas.
I'm supposed to be this neutral, do-not-root-for-anyone person, but a little bit of me is rooting for him. What do you remember from Mike last year at Evolution? The one match where it seemed like he had his stick taken away. He couldn't do anything. And part of me believes that has to be coming up in his mind now.
He's done exceptionally well in his last few tournaments. Going back to May, he's had an .806 first-combo win percentage and a .547 EX connection percentage. He also hasn't blown a lead in the last three tournament finals he's played (16 for 16).
OK now go tell me I'm wrong and pick eight players. Or, get that squid that's been picking all of the World Cup winners and have it squeeze me to death.
UPDATE: ESPN New York reporter Jane McManus said she talked to an EA representative and said it is a voucher for the game, not the actual game.
New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees was at Times Square in New York earlier today as part of a promotional event for Madden 11. And in the picture above, it looks like he is handing out copies of the game.
Whether he actually gave out the game has yet to be determined. For starters, the game isn't out until Aug. 10. However, this morning, Brees posted this message on Twitter:
I am in NYC with my boys from EA Sports. I will be in Times Square at 1PM to promote. Anybody who shows up gets a free copy of Madden 11
ESPN New York reporter Jane McManus said 1,000 copies of the game were going to be handed out. She said hours later it was the actual game after people asked about the event.
The EA rep said that it was the first time they'd done a Madden giveaway before the release, but it's part of the spirit of this campaign.
One person messaged me saying that people were handed a box, and inside was a coupon for the game.
If the game was given out today, this is amazing, considering that the national release is still one month away, and this event comes weeks after the Electronic Entertainment Expo.
The above video is the eSports World Cup finals match between Marn and Justin Wong (the one I posted yesterday was not). Both players went through 15 other players in Paris to get to the final match. It's their first matchup since both signed on as members of Evil Geniuses.
The video also has the awards presentation, as well as audio of what sounds like an annoying vuvuzela.
The competitive gaming team Dominion Method Gaming has reached a sponsorship deal with Focus Attack, an online merchandise store that sells Street Fighter and related fighting game products.
Dominion Gaming is home to several players playing various fighting and shooting games. According to their site, they have 11 members on the fighting game team, including Fei Long user Ryan "Inthul" Burke (pictured, center). The pad player took third at East Coast Throwdown two months ago in New York.
The team is scheduled to compete at Evolution this weekend.
Here's the news release from Focus Attack:
On July 5th, Focus Attack LLC - an upcoming e-commerce shop for all things Street Fighter and fighting games - recently signed a sponsorship deal with talented pro-player team Dominion Method Gaming. DMG's Super Street Fighter 4 team is highlighted by avid players Rico Suave, Dr. Chaos, and joypad-player Inthul, who recently rocked the competition during New Jersey's East Coast Throwdown 2 major tournament in May 2010.
Inthul first came on the scene during NECX 09. He handily placed within top 50 out of 250 competitors, a surprising feat for a player few heard about, but would certainly remember afterward. His fierce gameplay using Fei-Long upset enough ECT2 competitors to land within the top 5 slots of the tournament. Everyone, including Top National SSF4 champion Justin Wong, cheered during Inthul's performance. Forums on SRK buzzed with new players searching for Fei Long. It was here that Inthul and the the Dominion Method Gaming team made their mark.
EVO will prove as ferocious a battleground for those players, but Jaleel Beck, owner of Focus Attack, feels confident they will again push their way forward. "I was glad to hear from DMG when they were seeking sponsors. "Both of us are hungry to make a positive step in the fighting game community, so this is a mutual benefit. I'm glad to be supporting this team."
This is beautiful. Above is a completed version of a golden MadCatz Tournament Edition Fight Stick. There's only 24 of these. Originally, you had to be one of the eight finalists in the Super Street Fighter IV tournament to win one.
Now, there's more ways to get one. Mark Julio of MadCatz announced Monday night that the winner of the Ladies' Super Street Fighter IV tournament will also receive one, and at least one will be awarded to someone watching the live broadcast online.
Also, registration ends tonight at 11:59 PT, so be sure to signup if you plan to participate in the tournament. Head to the Evolution tournament site for more.
Two new tier lists for Super Street Fighter IV have been revealed. Japanese players Mago and Nemo were in the most recent interview of Arcadia Magazine. Azrael over at Shoryuken translated the interview, which you can check out here.
The recent Arcadia had a tier listing plus interview with Mago and Nemo. They compiled two lists - a "Global" list based on info they've compiled from talking to players, on messageboards, etc. And an Arcadia list that they themselves put together.
The obvious differences are that the Global Ranking is broken into thirds, and the Arcadia Ranking is four levels. It's interesting to note that, comparing the lists, Fei Long is in the top tier Arcadia Ranking but in the second level of the Global Ranking. Maybe that will get more people to use him (those that have on my tournament tier list have had almost no success, he's next to last based on win total and usage).
The Global Tier List:
A: Guile, Abel, Chun Li, Dictator, Honda, Boxer, Rose, Blanka
Michael aka Slash5150 broadcast the Slugfest IV tournament on Saturday at Ground Kontrol Classic Arcade in Portland; here's video of the finals between LordBBH and Fatbear.
Several videos of the ESWC Super Street Fighter IV tournament have been posted on YouTube. This one was posted within the last hour, Justin Wong and Marn playing in what appears to be the title match of the tournament.
The match was a 5-game series. The video starts with Game 2, Justin Wong ahead 1-0.
UPDATE: I'm being told this is not the title match, so perhaps this is an exhibition of some sorts.
SECOND UPDATE: This is reportedly pool play between the two guys, and it is a 3-game series.
A week ago, I wrote about comparing team stats between Mike Ross and ShadyK. What happens a week later? They meet in the finals of The Box Arena's Fight Tournament, a singles competition. One caveat: ShadyK went Ryu and not Akuma (which I'm not surprised, being that Evolution is a week away).
The tournament went to a second finals, won by Mike Ross. The stats for the first final and second final are in the stats section. If you want to see it, it's in the video above (it starts at 1:22:04).
A few stats stand out and they relate to Mike Ross. His EX connection rate was a swell .825 (33-for-40) and he won everytime he got the first combo, 7-for-7.
Perhaps the most impressive stat of the night: he never blew a late lead, going 12-for-12. That's the most for a finals that I've seen in a long time. Combining that with the previous two weeks, and Mike has converted his last 16 late leads in finals matches.
The Uryo vs Makoto match in the Godsgarden Online Tournament on Saturday morning was a great match. If someone wanted to see competitive Super Street Fighter IV for the first time, I might consider this to be the first match that I show them.
I think the match turned Makoto's way when he nailed an EX flip kick to win Game 14 and take an 8-6 lead. Had Makoto gotten hit by the burning kick, Uryo wins the game, and this match probably finishes closer than what it was, maybe differently
This was probably the stat of the match: Out of the 16 games played, 13 went to a third round. Uryo won 7 of the Round 3s played, Makoto won 6.
Three games went only two rounds, and they were all won by Makoto.
And out of all of that, the pace of the match was 11 seconds faster than your normal Super Street Fighter IV tournament match. They were averaging 37.11 seconds a round. I have the tournament average at 48.5 prior to adding this to my database (and now it's at 47.6 seconds).
Makoto was well ahead of the curve in most categories. He had an insane .714 first-hit win percentage (15-for-21) and a .685 EX connection percentage (50-for-73).
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